Comparing SARIMA and Holt-Winters’ forecasting accuracy with respect to Indian motorcycle industry

Puthran, Deepa and Shiva Prasad, H C and Keerthesh Kumar, K S and Manjunath, M (2014) Comparing SARIMA and Holt-Winters’ forecasting accuracy with respect to Indian motorcycle industry. Transactions on Engineering and Sciences, 2 (5). pp. 25-28. ISSN 2347-1964

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Abstract

Indian automotive industry is one of the largest in the world and has been growing at a very rapid pace. The industry is dominated by motorcycles with a market share of more than 70%. The Indian motorcycle industry has direct as well as indirect influence on the growth of the Indian economy, hence understanding and forecasting the performance of this industry is very critical. The key purpose of this journal paper is to compare the accuracy of Holt-Winters and Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which is popularly known as Box-Jenkins auto regressive model, in relation to Indian motorcycle industry and possibly suggest the best model. Currently, there are no studies exploring the forecasting accuracy, of two models with reference to Indian motorcycle sales. In this journal paper we equate the forecasted values of both the models and we choose the best model based on the least mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecast, Holt-Winters, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Indian motorcycle, Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean square error (MSE), Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).
Subjects: Engineering > MIT Manipal > Humanities and Management
Depositing User: MIT Library
Date Deposited: 09 Jun 2014 06:19
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2014 06:19
URI: http://eprints.manipal.edu/id/eprint/139686

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