Neural Network Based Mathematical Models for Gold Price Prediction

Shetty, Dasharathraj K and Annappa, K and Aithal, Prakash K and Melenta, Vrishika (2013) Neural Network Based Mathematical Models for Gold Price Prediction. In: 3rdInternational Engineering Symposium - IES 2013, March 4-6, 2013, Kumamoto University, Japan.

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Abstract

Gold is an old, rare and precious metal and is used as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and as a metal for ornaments. It has been used for coinage,jewellery, and other arts historically. There are several factors affecting the price of Gold prominent ones being Population, Inflation, Dollar Rate, rate of Bank Interest and Stock etc. This research project proposes a mathematical model that predicts the average annual price of Gold. Five mathematical models viz., Decision Tree,Regression, Radial Basis with exact fit, Radial basis with fewer Neurons (equal to number of input attributes) and Multilayer Feed Forward Network were experimented, and the results were compared with the last 129 (1883 to 2011) years actual average annual price of Gold. Both Multilayer Feed Forward Network with Back-Propagation and Radial Basis Function with fewer Neurons predicted best results with 99.504% accuracy. Following cases of input parameters were tested viz., (i) Population and Inflation (ii) Population alone

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Gold Price Prediction, Artificial Neural Network, Radial Basis, Multilayer Feed Forward Network, Decision Tree
Subjects: Engineering > MIT Manipal > Computer Science and Engineering
Depositing User: MIT Library
Date Deposited: 22 Mar 2013 05:50
Last Modified: 22 Mar 2013 05:50
URI: http://eprints.manipal.edu/id/eprint/79207

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